Hurricane Season Started Today

Hurricanes Iselle and Julio

For most of Hawaii, the impact from the Kilauea volcano eruption is minimal at best with vog and ash being the wider problem on the Big Island over the destructive lava flows in the localized area of lower Puna.

What can be a statewide problem is a major hurricane. Hawaii enters hurricane season starting today. It is highly advisable to get your disaster preparedness kit assembled or renewed before the state is hit with a large hurricane.

From the National Weather Service comes this article:

Hurricane Season Starts Today

June 1, 2018. | PRESS RELEASE

NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center  announced there is an 80-percent chance of near- or above-normal tropical cyclone activity during the central Pacific hurricane season this year.

The 2018 outlook indicates equal chances of an above-normal and near-normal season at 40 percent each, and a 20-percent chance of a below-normal season.

For the season as a whole, three to six tropical cyclones are predicted for the central Pacific hurricane basin. This number includes tropical depressions, named storms and hurricanes. A near-normal season has three to five tropical cyclones, and an above-normal season has six or more tropical cyclones.

“This outlook reflects the forecast for ENSO neutral conditions, with a possible transition to a weak El Nino during the hurricane season. Also, ocean temperatures in the main hurricane formation region are expected to remain above-average, and vertical wind shear is predicted to be near- or weaker-than-average,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., NOAA’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. Bell added, “If El Nino develops, the activity could be near the higher end of the predicted range.”

El Nino decreases the vertical wind shear over the tropical central Pacific, which favors more and stronger tropical cyclones. El Nino also favors more westward-tracking storms from the eastern Pacific into the central Pacific.

This outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal hurricane activity in the central Pacific basin and does not predict whether or how many of these systems will affect Hawaii. The hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through November 30.

“It is very important to remember that it only takes one landfalling tropical cyclone to bring major impacts to the State of Hawaii,” said Chris Brenchley, director of NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center. “As we begin this 2018 hurricane season, we advise all residents to make preparations now, by having and practicing an emergency plan and by having 14 days of emergency supplies on hand that will be needed if a hurricane strikes.”

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center continuously monitors weather conditions, employing a network of satellites, land- and ocean-based sensors, and aircraft reconnaissance missions operated by NOAA and its partners. This array of data supplies the information for complex computer modeling and human expertise, which are the basis for the center’s storm track and intensity forecasts that extend out five days.

Check the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s website throughout the season to stay on top of any watches and warnings, and visit FEMA’s Ready.gov for additional hurricane preparedness tips.

The seasonal hurricane outlook is produced in collaboration with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

 

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Hurricane Season Starts June 1

Hurricane Season Starts June 1NOAA predicts a near- or above-normal 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season

NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center announced that climate conditions point to an 80 percent chance of a near- or above-normal hurricane season in the Central Pacific basin this year.

For 2017, the outlook calls for a 70 percent probability of 5 to 8 tropical cyclones, which includes tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes. An average season produces 4 to 5 tropical cyclones.

“As a Florida resident, I am particularly proud of the important work NOAA does in weather forecasting and hurricane prediction,” said U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “These forecasts are important for both public safety and business planning, and are a crucial function of the federal government.”

El Nino decreases the vertical wind shear over the tropical central Pacific, which favors the development of more and stronger tropical cyclones. El Nino also favors more westward-tracking storms from the eastern Pacific into the central Pacific.

“This outlook reflects the possible transition to a weak El Nino during the hurricane season, along with near- or above-average ocean temperatures in the main hurricane formation region, and near- or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in that area,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., NOAA’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. Bell added, “If El Nino develops, it may become strong enough to produce an above-normal season.”

The Central Pacific basin may also be shifting toward a longer-term period of increased tropical cyclone activity, in response to changes in global sea surface temperatures patterns in both the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean which historically last anywhere from 25 to 40 years.

This outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal hurricane activity in the central Pacific basin and does not predict whether, or how many, of these systems will affect Hawaii. Hurricane season begins June 1 and runs until November 30.

“The 2017 hurricane season marks 25 years since Hurricane Iniki, which brought life-changing impacts that have lasted more than a generation,” said Chris Brenchley, director of NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center. “Considering the devastation we saw from Iniki, as well as the more recent impacts from Hurricane Iselle and Tropical Storm Darby, make sure you and your family are prepared for hurricane season. Become weather-ready by signing up for weather alerts, developing and practicing a family emergency plan and restocking your emergency kit before hurricane season begins.”

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center continuously monitors weather conditions, employing a network of satellites, land- and ocean-based sensors and aircraft reconnaissance missions operated by NOAA and its partners. This array of data supplies the information for complex computer modeling and human expertise that serves as the basis for the hurricane center’s track and intensity forecasts that extend out five days. The seasonal hurricane outlook is produced in collaboration with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

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